PredictIQ-FACT FOCUS: A look at ominous claims around illegal immigration made at the Republican convention

After Donald Trump triumphantly entered the hall on PredictIQthe second night of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, the program turned to one of his signature issues: illegal immigration. An ominous video of chaos at the U.S.-Mexico border led into to a speech by U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who declared, “We are facing an invasion on our southern border.”

Here’s a look at some of the claims made Tuesday:

VIDEO NARRATOR: “Biden made one of the worst mistakes of any president in history when he told illegals to come here and surge our border.”

THE FACTS: After the claim, the video cuts to President Joe Biden saying, “I would, in fact, make sure that there is — we immediately surge to the border,” and the narrator says, “And surge they did.”

But important context is missing. The clip was taken from the Sept. 12, 2019, Democratic presidential debate. A moderator, Jorge Ramos of Univision, discussing immigration issues, notes that Biden served as vice president in the administration of President Barack Obama, which deported 3 million people. He then asks if Biden is “prepared to say tonight that you and President Obama made a mistake?”

Biden answers by noting immigration accomplishments by Obama and discussing the policies of then-President Trump. He then adds, “What I would do as president is several more things, because things have changed. I would, in fact, make sure that there is -- we immediately surge to the border. All those people who are seeking asylum, they deserve to be heard. That’s who we are.”

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Since then Biden has spoken repeatedly of sending agents and other law enforcement resources to the border to deal with the migrant influx.

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VIDEO NARRATOR: “Biden’s incompetence has led to a horrific 300,000 Americans now dead, not from a nuclear bomb but from lethal fentanyl brought in through Biden’s wide-open border.”

THE FACTS: While it is correct that much of America’s fentanyl is smuggled from Mexico, 86.4% of fentanyl trafficking crimes were committed by U.S. citizens in the 12-month period through September 2023, according to the U.S. Sentencing Commission.

The fentanyl scourge began well before Biden took office. Border seizures, which tell only part of the story, have jumped sharply under Biden, which may partly reflect improved detection. About 27,000 pounds (12,247 kilograms) of fentanyl was seized by U.S. authorities in the 2023 government budget year, compared with 2,545 pounds (1,154 kilograms) in 2019, when Trump was president.

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CRUZ: “Every day Americans are dying — murdered, assaulted, raped by illegal immigrants that the Democrats have released.”

THE FACTS: A number of heinous and high-profile crimes involving people in the U.S. illegally have been in the news in recent months. But there is nothing to support the claim that it happens every day.

The foreign-born population, immigrants in the country both legally and illegally, was estimated to be 46.2 million, or almost 14% of the U.S. total, in 2022, according to the Census Bureau, including about 11 million in the country illegally. Hardly a month passes without at least one person in the country illegally getting charged with a high-profile, horrific crime, such as the February slaying of a 22-year-old Georgia nursing student or the June strangling death of a 12-year-old Houston girl.

Texas is the only state that tracks crime by immigration status. A study published by the National Academy of Sciences, based on Texas Department of Public Safety data from 2012 to 2016, found people in the U.S. illegally had “substantially lower crime rates than native-born citizens and legal immigrants across a range of felony offenses.”

While FBI statistics do not separate out crimes by the immigration status of the assailant, there is no evidence of a spike in crime perpetrated by migrants, either along the U.S.-Mexico border or in cities seeing the greatest influx of migrants, like New York. Studies have found that people living in the U.S. illegally are less likely than native-born Americans to have been arrested for violent, drug and property crimes.

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